Brought to you by a team of The London Financial Analysts, Co-founders, and Publishers
All times are in London GMT
FINAL UPDATE: Biden has won the 2020 US election (Last Updated: Saturday, 4:50pm)
Summary of Recent Events:
Scroll down for further analysis and comments!
-
Biden has won the 2020 US election (Posted on Saturday, 4.50pm): According to AP/BBC
-
Biden wins Pennsylvania, which gives him 20 electoral college votes to win the presidency (Posted on Saturday, 4.50pm): According to AP/The Guardian
-
Biden with narrow leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania (Posted on Friday, 2.20pm): According to AP/The Guardian
-
Trump campaign loses lawsuit to stop vote counting in Michigan (Posted on Thursday, 7.22pm): According to Reuters/The Guardian
-
Trump calls to stop vote counting (Posted on Thursday, 7.22pm): According to FT
-
Biden leads the popular vote and has received more than 71 million votes, surpassing Obama’s record of more than 69 million votes in 2008 (Posted on Thursday, 7.33am): According to AP/CBS News
-
Trump campaign to challenge vote counts in key states of Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan (Posted on Thursday, 7.25am): According to BBC
-
Biden wins Michigan, which places him only six electoral college votes away from the White House (Posted on Wednesday, 11:20pm): According to FT
-
Biden wins Wisconsin (Posted on Wednesday, 8pm): According to FT
-
Key states that have not called the results: North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (Posted on Wednesday, 5.24pm): According to BBC/The Guardian
-
Nevada to resume vote counting on Thursday (Posted on Wednesday, 5.24pm): According to BBC
-
Democrats falling short on gaining control of the US Senate (Posted on Wednesday, 1.15pm): According to Reuters/AP
-
Tight races in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (Posted on Wednesday, 12.55pm): According to AP
-
Biden with slight leads in Nevada and Wisconsin (Posted on Wednesday, 11.39am): According to CNBC/The Guardian
-
Biden wins Arizona, flipping the longtime Republican stronghold since 1948 (Posted on Wednesday, 8.20am): According to AP
-
Trump wins Arkansas (Posted on Wednesday, 8.20am): According to AP
-
Trump falsely claims election victory with vote counting still underway (Posted on Wednesday, 8.20am): According to Reuters
-
The Cuban-American vote could have been vital in Trump’s Florida win (Posted on Wednesday, 6:33am): Read more: https://www.thelondonfinancial.com/post/the-cuban-american-republican-vote-in-florida
-
Trump predicted to win Texas (Posted on Wednesday, 6:25am): According to BBC
-
Trump wins Florida (Posted on Wednesday, 5:48am): According to AP
-
Trump is odds on to win the election (Posted on Wednesday, 5:36am): According to Bookies.com, the President has shown election day gains in winning odds and is now the favorite to win overall.
-
Trump wins Iowa, Montana, and Ohio. Biden wins Hawaii, Minnesota, and California (Posted on Wednesday, 5:20am)
-
Democrats hold House of Representatives (Posted on Wednesday, 4:30am)
-
Key battleground state of Florida shows an early lead for Trump (Posted on Wednesday, 3:30am): 52.2% Trump, 46.4% Biden
-
Arizona legalizes marijuana and shows an early lead for Biden (Posted on Wednesday, 4am): According to Associated Press.
-
Racial tensions laid bare in exit poll (Posted on Wednesday, 3am): According to the exit polls, 87% of black US Americans support Biden, whereas 11% support Trump.
-
Exit polls show level support for the Trump Administrations’ handling of the Pandemic (Posted on Wednesday, 1am): According to Edison Research/Reuters, 48% of Americans believe the government reacted ‘very well’ or ‘somewhat well’.
-
Indiana predicted for Trump (Posted on Tuesday, 11:55pm): According to BBC/Reuters
-
Americans prioritise the economy! (Posted on Tuesday, 11:45pm): According to Reuters, 34% of voters opted for the economy, 21% racial injustice, and 18% the pandemic.
-
Americans prioritise the economy! (Posted on Tuesday, 10:30pm): According to Reuters, 34% of voters opted for the economy, 21% racial injustice, and 18% the pandemic.
-
100m people have voted (Posted on Tuesday, 8:33pm): Both candidates claim that higher turnout increases their chances of victory.
-
Trump admits he could lose (Posted on Tuesday, 7pm): He said: “I think we’re going to have a great night, but it’s politics and it’s elections and you never know”
-
Trump shows early polling gains (Posted on Tuesday, 6:30pm): Polling data aggregator RealClearPolitics shows Trump to have a minor lead in Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina, all previously being polled higher for Biden
-
Voting is underway! (Posted on Tuesday, 6pm): It is turning out to be a record-breaking election already, with some states, including the key battleground of Florida, recording the highest number of votes in its history.
Further Analysis and Comments:
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): US markets open (Posted on Wednesday, 2.30pm)
US markets just opened and equities are moving slightly higher as investors await the election result.
Aaryaman Dutt (Head of Energy at Kings M&A Society): What would a Biden win mean for the energy industry? (Posted on Wednesday, 1.15pm)
With the election being exhilaratingly close and Biden up now, it is worth seeing what a Biden victory may mean for the energy industry in the US and worldwide.
Joe Biden has been a vocal proponent of addressing climate change, as he has stated that he wants to reenter the Paris Agreement and wishes to eliminate carbon in power generation by 2035. Biden even stated that he wants to transition away from the oil industry altogether due to the pollution it causes, and instead look to renewables. While this could mean that sustainable energy companies like Siemens and Vestas become increasingly successful, it could be disastrous for more traditional energy companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil. However, Biden’s proposed tax deductions in his US$2 trillion climate plan have been encouraging for the oil and gas industry, as Mike Sommers – CEO of the American Petroleum Institute – has said that this is an area where Biden and the oil and gas industry can work together.
It is yet to be seen if Biden will even win the election. Even if he does, will the Republican Senate allow substantial legislative change that might affect Big Oil? Either way, the traditional powerhouses of the energy industry cannot possibly be hoping that Joe Biden manages to flip Pennsylvania or Michigan from red to blue.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): What are the possible scenarios for the markets. (Posted on Wednesday, 9.40am)
If Trump now wins, this would be the smoothest result for assets. A Biden win would now certainly be contested, but it is less likely that Biden would contest a Trump win. A clear win for either candidate would stabilise the markets. An unclear result for days, if not weeks, could be disastrous for equities. A divided Congress would also not be great for markets, as this would make a stimulus deal very tricky as the past few months have shown.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): Gold, bonds and FX.(Posted on Wednesday, 9.40am)
Gold continues to fall alongside global equities, demonstrating that it is no longer acting like a typical safe haven. Gold has become a risk on asset similar to equities; not even the volatility of this election could change that.
Government bond yields have continued to fall as investors surge into these products. The dollar continues to rally, while the currencies of countries at risk of trade spats with Trump have fallen. This includes Mexico and China. Once again, the election result is not clear yet and this volatility will probably continue.
Stanislaw Borawski (Economics Editor, Head of the Economics Institute at King’s Global Markets): Infrastructure Plans/Recovering Jobs and the Economy (Posted on Wednesday, 9.10am)
The 2020 election is unprecedented also from the economic point of view. The candidates stand in front of a difficult task of reinstating millions of jobs lost throughout the course of the Covid-19 pandemic and rebooting the economy with successful infrastructure packages. Trump’s first of the many promises is to provide another $2 trillion infrastructure package that aims, quite unrealistically, to create 10 million jobs in 10 months, whilst Biden promises half the number (5 million) over a longer period of time. Trump’s adamant objective is to provide substantial funding for the tech industry in order to win the 5G race. Biden’s plan, despite less financing ($1.3 trillion), presents itself as more concrete. Three key investments will be $50 billion to rebuild roads, bridges and highways, $100 billion for modernisation of schools and $400 billion for clean energy research and innovation that aims to achieve a 100% clean energy economy by 2050. President Trump did not outline a tactic to tackle climate change as he believes it is a ruse.
TAX:
Both candidates hold important differences with regards to taxation. The incumbent intends to continue his tax cuts policy for large corporations and will pursue an aggressive trading strategy with countries who “unfairly tax” American companies. Trump also plans to introduce “Made in America” tax credits for companies currently outsourcing in China for bringing manufacturing jobs back to the States. He wants to eliminate payroll tax. Estimates say the continuation of tax cuts will cost the Federal Government almost $1.5 trillion dollars. The counter-candidate also focuses on improving domestic economy through reversing Trump’s tax cuts and aiming the economic upper-class to deliver. Biden announces he will raise the income tax back to 39.6% from 37% and the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%. He also wants to double the tax rate on gains of U.S firms’ foreign subsidiaries and introduce a 15% book income tax on large companies. Households with over $1 million of yearly income are to be taxed on capital gains and dividends at usual rates. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Biden’s tax policy will bring the federal government $4 trillion of profit. Most importantly, 93% of tax raises will be borne by the top 20% of households by income out of which the famous “1%” will pay ¾ of the tax raise.
Sources:
https://www.investopedia.com/comparing-the-economic-plans-of-trump-and-biden-4843240 https://www.npr.org/2020/10/16/919162392/trumps-and-biden-s-plans-for-the-economy?t=1604430446689#bidenplan
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): EU market open (Posted on Wednesday, 8.15am)
European markets open and equities fall on the uncertain result. The polls were clearly wrong once again and markets had too much faith in a blue sweep. It could be a choppy few days until a result is clear.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): Trump says he will contest result (Posted on Wednesday, 8am)
Dow futures down over 400 points as Trump vows to contest election in the Supreme court.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): Overnight markets (Posted on Wednesday, 7am)
In the overnight markets, the dollar rose and equities moved higher, while gold and government bonds fell. Bookies also tightened the spread for the race as the results are looking inconclusive. It will now most likely take days to get a finalised result. Equity markets are probably going to move lower today because of the uncertainty.
Evan Boyle (Investment Analyst at University College Dublin Student Managed Fund): Trump. (Posted on Wednesday, 6am): “If Trump retains his position in the Oval Office it would appear the best stock strategy would follow his friend’s list…
Whether you like him or not, President Donald Trump became and could remain one of the most powerful people in the world. Above [see article] depicts only a smattering of the various back scratches and underhanded dealings of his first term, but with federal contracts generally awarded in the billions perhaps its self-serving to invest with the man, not against him.
Read more about this story: https://www.thelondonfinancial.com/post/friends-in-high-places
Guala Avogadro di Vigliano (Head of TMT at Kings M&A Society): Tech stocks. (Posted on Wednesday, 2am):
Trump Re-election
Over the last 4 years, Trump’s administration focused on deregulating many different industries, especially the tech one. During his office, President Donald Trump reduced the
net neutrality rules that were hardly reinforced in the Bush and Obama era. By doing so, Trump freed broadband providers to block content on the internet, avoiding the internet to be an open playing field. However, he took a different approach to social media companies. He signed an act to further regulate content posted by third party users on social media. Trump repeatedly pushed the ban of various Chinese companies such as the tech ByteDance (owner of TikTok) and the telecom infrastructure provider Huawei. Moreover, he has also been a big supporter of US leadership in 5G, with efforts concerning spectrum policy and trying to free up most airwaves as possible.
Biden Election
Until now, the Democrat candidate Joe Biden has not expressed any opinion regarding tech companies. Thus, many assumptions swing around the idea that he could adopt Obama-era policies. COVID-19 crisis led to the need for good quality internet, since education is being
held remotely as well as many other jobs. During his campaign, he promised to invest $20 billion in getting broadband access to communities that do not have it, since he believes that in the 21st century economy this is essential. He will therefore push for greater high-speed internet access all over the US. Biden’s campaign highlighted that he will do so by investing $20 billion in broadband infrastructure funding. Moreover, he explicitly said it is too early to break up big tech firms like Amazon or Google, but it would definitely increase regulations. It is propagating falsehoods they know to be false, and should be setting standards not unlike the Europeans are doing relative to privacy; this explained Biden’s views in relation to social media’s freedom. In addition, his personal views on the trade war between China and the US are that these negotiations have hurt Americans. He will most definitely modify these terms, which will have spillover effects on the regulations on Chinese tech companies.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): Warnings of delayed counts in certain states. (Posted on Wednesday, 1.20am):
Pennsylvania and Michigan are warning that it might take until the 6th to count all mail-in ballots. This kind of delay if it turns out to be decisive for the result could be bad for equities.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): Murmurings in Florida. (Posted on Wednesday, 1am):
Early indications are not great for Biden. The margin in Florida is low so far and far off where it should be indicating that Trump will win the state again. Biden still has plenty of other chances to win. T note futures rallied in response, while equities and gold fell.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): A bad poll for Biden. (Posted on Tuesday, 10pm):
A CNN poll of voters shows that 48% believe that the pandemic has been handled well, 51% say it has been handled badly. This is not a good poll for Biden, his campaign has focused on Trump’s poor handling of COVID and this election is very focused on this one issue. This might foreshadow a close result proving the markets wrong, or it could be completely inaccurate as polls often are.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): US markets close for the Day (Posted on Tuesday, 9.30pm):
The US markets are now closed: the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW JONES all gained over 2% for the day, while the Russell 1000 gained just under 2%. The only sector to decline today in the US was energy, which was driven down by oil stocks. This all points to the markets predicting a clear Biden victory, hence the fall in energy as Biden’s belief in climate change is well known and his policies reflect this view.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): Are the fears of a contested election overblown? (Posted on Tuesday, 9pm):
Many predictions have been given for this election. Trump has clearly stated a desire to contest the result if he is not reelected. Pessimists are envisioning riots across the US, no matter the victor. However, some hedge funds believe that this is all overblown and have shorted the VIX betting on volatility falling, as the below chart shows.
This may turn out to be a very risky bet; if they are wrong and the election is very tight and highly contested, then the VIX could surge to new highs. Even if they are right, a very strong blue wave could catch markets off guard and cause a sell-off leading to a similar result.
Charles Heighton (Market Editor, VP of Trading at Kings Global Markets): Bullish markets as investors expect a substantial Biden Win (Posted on Tuesday, 7pm): The day is upon us and what a build-up it has been for the markets. Last week was the worst for major indices since the pandemic hit in March, as cases and restrictions across several major economies increased. This week, all major indices have rallied strongly. Analysts are suggesting that investors are confident of a Biden win and a Democratic sweep by a large margin and are bullish as a result. This would quickly lead to a lot more stimulus a clear positive. We will soon see if the market and the analysts are right. However, it is not clear how the markets will react if Biden does win handily.
The margin is important for this election, more so than ever before. Biden or Trump needs a big enough margin for the result not to be doubted. If Trump loses, he will probably contest the result as he has already claimed; this is a harder argument to make if he loses massively. A close fight could be bad for markets because the election could drag on for weeks. The rally in gold today is a clear indication of some investor uncertainty caused by this issue. If the winner is not obvious early on, we may see futures move lower and the open could be messy. Whichever way the vote goes, it will be a fascinating event that every investor should have their eye on.
Luis Felipe Catao (Head of Law at Kings M&A Society): Biden on green energy (Posted on Tuesday, 7pm): One of Biden’s goals is to impose stringent regulations on the use of fossil fuels, completely revolutionising the market by 2035. Ultimately, this has already had an impact on M&A activity in the Energy Sector: Conoco acquiring US shale Concho before the election is an example of that. Major oil & gas producers like Chevron have started shifting to renewables, and we should see increased M&A activity there if Biden is to win. Some examples of measures Biden is pursuing are a $2tn dollar investment in clean energy and re-joining the Paris deal, ending subsidies for oil producers, and limiting drilling on national land. My prediction: we won’t be seeing a lot of M&A activity on oil & gas for a while, whilst clean energy start-ups may be ripe for the taking if there is a Biden win. Furthermore, for the major oil producers, it might be easier to acquire a fully functional startup than expanding vertically.
Contributor to The London Financial
We combine research produced by students and early professionals into a single website, breaking down the barriers to entry individuals face in a number of industries.
Contributor opinions are their own and do not necessarily reflect the stance of the LF.